The global laptop market will recover in 2024, with shipments expected to increase by approximately 2 to 5% annually.
According to a survey by TrendForce, notebook computer channel inventory levels have gradually become healthier since the second quarter, and demand for mid- to low-end consumer models in North America and Asia-Pacific markets has gradually emerged. In addition to replenishing inventory, they are also preparing for the back-to-school rush in the third quarter. At the same time, Chromebook shipments also reached a peak before Google collected licensing fees, pushing overall notebook shipments to 42.52 million units in the second quarter, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.6%. In total, global notebook computer shipments in the first half of the year reached 77.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%.
TrendForce further pointed out that the purchasing power of end consumers will determine the growth momentum of notebook computers in the second half of 2023. However, due to the uncertain economic prospects of the two major notebook computer consumer markets in the United States and Europe, traditional seasonal purchasing momentum has been suppressed, and some demand It was also realized ahead of schedule in the second quarter, so the growth rate of notebook computer shipments in the third quarter will converge to 3.8%, reaching 44.13 million units; the full-year notebook computer market shipments are expected to reach 163 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. .
Looking forward to the trend in 2024, as market inventories become healthier and inflationary pressure gradually stabilizes, global notebook computer shipments are expected to reverse in 2024. However, the global consumption environment is still under pressure. Even if demand is slowly recovering, the market still has not observed extremely optimistic signals. TrendForce predicts that the full-year growth rate in 2024 will be about 2~5%, and shipments will be slightly higher than the epidemic. front level. TrendForce believes that after the inventory problem is resolved, the overall market will slowly return to healthy flow. Whether we can expect higher shipment growth remains to be observed continuously in the trends of the two major consumer markets in China and the United States.
There is no seasonal market activity in the second half of the year. When demand is sluggish, in addition to affecting the company's earnings performance, it is more likely to drag down the budget arrangements for the next year. At the same time, the AI trend is on the rise, and the construction of related infrastructure may crowd out IT spending. Even if Windows 10 will end of support in October 2025, it can be expected to start driving the business replacement wave in 2024. However, TrendForce believes that judging from the demand for business laptops, the timing and strength of the business replacement wave may be delayed and slowed down, and the possibility of substantial growth in shipments is relatively low.
